Sunday, May 17, 2015

Unit 7 - Foreign Exchange Market

  • The buying and selling of currency. 
    • EX: In order to purchase souvenirs in France, it is first necessary for Americans to sell (supply) their dollars and buy (demands) Euros. 
  • The exchange rate (e) is determined in the foreign currency markets. 
  • Always change the D line on the one currency graph, the S line in the other currency graph 
  • Move lines of two currency graphs in the same direction and you will have the correct answer. 
  • If D on one graph moves up then so will the S on the other graph. And same if D on one graph moves left then S on the other graph will also move left. 
Changes in Exchange Rates:
-Exchange rates are a function of the supply and demand for currency. 
-Increasing of supply in a currency will make it cheaper to buy one unit of that currency. 
-Decreasing in supply of a currency will make it more expensive to buy one unit of that currency. 
-Increase in demand for a currency will make it more expensive to buy one unit of that currency. 
-Decrease in demand for a currency will make it cheaper to buy one unit of that currency. 

Appreciation: occurs when the exchange rate of that currency increases 

Depreciation: occurs when the exchange rate of that currency decreases. 

Exchange Rate Determinants: 


  • Consumer taste 
  • Relative income 
  • Relative price level 


Unit 5 & 6 - Supply Side Economics

-The belief that the AS curve will determine levels of inflation, unemployment, and economic growth
-To increase the economy the AS curve will have to shift to the right which would benefit the company first.
-Supply side economists focus on marginal tax rates.

Marginal tax rates: amount paid on the last dollar earned or the additional dollar earned.
-By reducing the marginal tax rate, supply siders believe that you will encourage more people to work longer and forgo leisure time.
Lower taxes are incentives for workers to invests in our economy.

1.Supply side economists
-Supports policies that promote GDP growth by arguing that high marginal tax rate along with our current system of transfer payments provide disincentives to work, invest, innovate, and undertake entrepreneurial ventures.
-People to increase savings and therefore create lower interest rates and increase business investments.

2. Supply side economics (Raeganomics)
-Lowered the marginal tax rate to get the U.S not in a recession ---> Deficit

Laffer curve: it is a trade off between tax rates and government revenue
-It is used to support the supply side economics argument.

Criticism of the laffer curve:
1. researchers suggest that the impact on tax rates on incentives to work, invest, and to save are small.
2.tax cuts also increase demands.

3. where the economy is actually located on the curve is yet to be located on the curve is yet to be determined.


Unit 5 & 6 - Short Run Aggregate Supply and Long Run Aggregate Supply

Short run aggregate supply (SRAS)
-Nominal Wages: the amount of money received per hour, per day, or per year.
-Sticky Wages: this is where the nominal wage level is set according to an initial price level and does not vary.
-Time is too short for wages to adjust to the price level.
-Workers may not be aware of changes in their real wages due to inflation and have adjusted their labor supply decisions and wage demand accordingly. 





Price level
Wage level
Employment level
Implications
Keynesian/Horizontal
Fixed
Fixed
Flexible
Dep. On change in employment.
Intermediate
Flexible
Fixed
Flexible
Dep. On change in price level and employment.
Classical or Vertical
Flexible
Fixed
Fixed
Dep. On change in price level.

Long run aggregate supply (LRAS)
-Flexible price level and wage
-Time long enough for wages to adjust to the price level
-Both offset each other

*Phillips curve represents the relationship between unemployment and inflation.*
-Trade off between inflation and unemployment that only occurs in the short run.

Long run Phillips curve:
-occurs at the natural rate of unemployment represented by a vertical line at 4-5 %.
-There is no trade off between unemployment and inflation in the long run which means that the economy produces at the full employment level.
-The long run phillips curve will only shift if the LRAS curve shifts, otherwise it is assumed to be stable.

NRU = Seasonal, Frictional, Structural

Major LRAS assumption:
-The more worker benefits create higher natural rates and fewer worker benefits create lower natural rates.

Short run phillips curve:
-Inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation.
-It has relevance to Okuns law
-Since wages are sticky inflation changes, moves the points on the SRPC. 
-If inflation persist and the expected rate of inflation rises, than the entire SRPC moves upwards causing stagflation.
-If inflation expectations drop due to new technology or economic growth then the SRPC moves downwards.

Aggregate supply shocks cause both the rate of inflation and the rate if unemployment to increase.
Supply shock - rapid and significant increase in resource cost.

Misery index: the combination of inflation and unemployment in any given year.
-Single digit misery is good

The Long Run Phillips Curve
-Because long run Philips curve exists at the natural rate of unemployment, structural changes in the economy that affect unemployment will also cause LRPC to shit
-Increase in unemployment will shift LRPC  to the right
-Decrease in unemployment will shift LRPC to the left

*SRAS and SRPC are opposite*

Stagflation: A period of high inflation and high unemployment occurring at the same time.
EX. Baby boom
       Women's movement
       Civil rights movement
       Vietnam war ends
       Oil embargo of 1973 and 1979

Disinflation:Reduction in the inflation rate from year to year
-Nominal wages increase during this time

Deflation: A situation in which there is an drop in the price level.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Purchasing Power Parity

Purchasing power parity:
-When currency rates are set by international markets changes will be based on the actual purchasing power of the currency.
Ex. U.S dollar to Euro rate is $1.5 to 1 euro than each $1.50 would buy 1 euro, however if an item in the U.S cost $1.5 and then cost more or less than one euro the parity is lost 
-Markets will adjust quickly in floating rates or pressure for change will occur in fixed rate

Why do we exchange currencies?
-Invest in other countries
-Buy stocks and bonds 
-Build factories or stores in other markets
-Speculate on currency values
-Hold currency in bank account for future exports imports and future business loans
-Control excessive imbalances 



Comparative Advantage vs. Absolute Advantage:

Comparative- when a country's production of a good is produced at a lower opportunity cost
Individual/national- exists when an individual or nation can produce a good/service at a lower opp. cost than can another individual or nation
Lower opportunity cost

Absolute- when a country's cost of resources is less than another country
Individual- exists when a person can produce more of a certain goes / service in the same amount of time
National- exists when a country can produce more of a good/service than another country can in the same time period
Faster more efficient

Terms of Trade:
The ratio at which a country can trade domestic products for imported ones
Exchange Rates
The ratio at which two currencies are traded
Economic Integration
Occurs when two or more nations join to form a free trade zone
European Union
European trading that consists of 27 nations that have dropped all tariffs and trade barriers

Input problem vs. Output problem:
Input- what can be produced using the least amount of resources land or time
A chosen item/forgone item
Ex. Bread v. Beans 
Lowest opportunity cost

Output- production
What they give up/what is produced 


Unit 7 - The Balance of Payments

Def: A measure of money inflows and outflows between the United States and the rest of the world (row)
-Inflows are referred to as CREDITS
-Outflows are referred to as DEBITS

The balance of payments is divided into three accounts:
  1. Current account
  2. Capital/financial account
  3. Official reserves account


Double entry bookkeeping:
-Every transaction in the balance of payments is recorded twice in accordance with standard accounting practice.  
Ex: US manufacturer john Deere exports 50 million worth of farm equipment of Ireland 
-A credit of 50 million to the current account
-Debit of 50 million to the capital financial account
-Notice that the two transactions offset each other(should theoretically equal zero) 

Current account :
-Balance of trade or net exports
Exports of goods services- imports of good/services
Exports create a credit to the balance of payment 
Imports create a debit of the balance of payments 
-Net foreign income 
Incomes earned by us owned foreign assets- income paid to foreign held us assets
-Net transfers
Foreign aid-a debit to the current account 
Ex: Mexican migrant worker send back money 

Capital/financial account:
The balance of capital ownership: Includes the purchase of both real and financial assets
-Direct investment in the U.S is a credit to the capital account
Ex: The Toyota factory in San Antonio 
 -Direct investment by us firms/individuals in a foreign country are debits to the capital account
-Purchase of foreign financial assets represents a debit to the capital account 
Ex: Warren buffet buys stock in Petro china.
-Purchase of domestic financial assets by foreign represents a credit to the capital account
Ex: The United Arab emirates sovereign wealth fund purchases at large stake. 

Relationship between current and capital account:
-The current account and the capital account should zero each other out
That is if the account has a negative balance (deficit) then the capital account should then have a positive balance (surplus)

Official reserves:
-The foreign currency holdings of the U.S federal reserve system.
-When there is a balance of payments surplus the fed accumulates foreign currency and debits the balance of payments.
-When there is a balance of payments deficit the fed depletes its reserves of foreign currency and credits the balance of payments.
-The official reserves zero out the balance of payments.

Active vs. Passive official reserves:
-The U.S is passive in its use of official reserves. It does not seek to manipulate the dollar exchange rate
-The people’s Republic of China is active in its use of official reserves. It actively buys and sells dollars in order to maintain a steady exchange rate with the U.S.


Balance of Trade:
Goods and services exports - goods and services imports
-Deficit- imports is greater than exports
-Surplus- exports is greater than imports 
Unofficial way of calculating trade: 
Goods exports + goods imports
Balance of goods and services:       
Goods imports + service imports 
Current account:
Balance of trade + net investment + net transfers 
Capital account:
Foreign purchases of U.S assets + U.S purchases of assets abroad 
Official reserve:
Capital account balance + current account balance  




Sunday, March 29, 2015

Monetary Policy Video Summaries

Video 1:
This video discusses the three different types of money. The first and most basic is commodity money which can be defined as the use of goods and services that have a similar function as money.
The second, which is not in use anymore, is representative money that is used to represent a precious metal such as gold or silver. A draw back of this type of money is that when the value of the metal changes, it affects the value of the actual currency. The third type, and the one we use today, is fiat money. Fiat money is not backed by a precious metal but simply by the word of the government that it has value. Then there are also three functions of money. The first is as a medium of exchange meaning that it is through money that exchange happens. The second is store of value which is when you put money away it is expected to still have the same value when you take it back. Inflation is a disincentive of saving. The third is unit of account meaning that the price of an object implies something of its worth and quality.

Video 2:
To create a money market graph we must first label our axis. The vertical axis, as in most graphs, is price but in this case the price paid to borrow money so it will be labeled as the interest rate. The horizontal axis is quantity of money. Then we have the demand for money which slopes downward because when interest rate is high, demand for money is going to be low and vice versa; it is an inverse relationship. The only difference of the money market graph is that the supply of money is vertical because it does not vary based on interest rate, it is fixed by the FED. So to bring the interest rate down, the FED can increase money supply.

Video 3:
There are three FED tools of monetary policy which include required reserve, discount rate, and the buying and selling of bonds. The required reserve is the percentage of the banks total deposits which they must keep either as vault cash or reserve with a FED branch. The discount rate is the rate at which banks can borrow money from the FED, however, this is not guaranteed to be effective because it is only an incentive. The third tool is the buying and selling of bonds which is used the most often. During an expansionary or recession period (easy money), the required reserve will be decreased so that it becomes excess money to make more loans, the discount rate will be lowered and the FED will buy bonds to increase money supply. During a contractionary or inflation period (tight money), the required reserve and the discount rate will be raised, and the FED will sell bonds to lower the money supply. The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from each other.

Video 4:
Loanable funds is the money available in the banking system for people to borrow. In this video we learn how to make a loanable funds graph which has interest rates in the vertical axis and quantity of loanable funds in the horizontal axis. Demand for loanable funds is downward slopping and supply of loanable funds, which comes from the amount of money people have in banks, is upward slopping. In this market, more money saved equals more money for loans so savings are a positive affect. During a government deficit, they will demand money to spend it causing a shift of the demand on a money market graph to the right (increase) and the interest rate will go up. Since the change in one graph affects the other, in the loanable funds graph, the demand for loanable funds will also increase causing the interest rate to raise. Another way to show an increase in interest rates is by decreasing the supply of loanable funds and in return increasing the interest rate.

Video 5:
Another important concept is the money creating process which involves the money multiplier, one over the required ratio, and multiple deposit expansion. Banks create money by making loans which they make from the excess reserves, so if someone deposited $500 in a bank with a required ratio of 20%, that bank will be able to loan out $400. The $400 will then be deposited at another bank which can loan out $320 dollars and so on; this is the process of multiple deposit expansion. If we add up all potential loans we come up with $2500 that were created from the initial $500 deposit. This number can be derived by multiplying the loanable amount times the money multiplier. However, this amount is not guaranteed because it is only an assumption that each bank will loan out all of their excess reserves.

Video 6:
There is a connection between the money market, loanable funds, and AD - AS graphs. An example of this can be seen by  graphing the changes that occur during a government deficit. In the money market, the demand for money will increase so it is moved to the right and the money supply stays the same. This will cause either an increase in demand of loanable funds or a decrease in supply of loanable funds so that the interest rate is equal to that in the money market. The AD - AS graph will also have an increase in aggregate demand causing an increase in both price level and GDP. With the equation of exchange, MV = PQ, we can also see how a change in money supply means a change in price just like the graphs show. The Fisher effect says that interest rate and price level are equivalent so if there is a 1% increase in the interest rate it will yield a 1% increase of inflation.

Loanable Funds Market

Markets where savers and borrowers exchange funds (Qlf) at a real rate of interest rate. The demand for loan-able funds, or borrowing comes from household, firms, government and foreign sector. The demand for loan-able funds is in fact the supply of bonds. Supply of the loan-able funds or savings comes from the households. 

*Changes in Demand for loan-able funds: Demand for loan-able funds equal borrowing, more borrowing equals more demand for loans funds (-->).  Less borrowing equals less demand for loan-able funds (<--)   Dlf --> :r%:increases


Example: Government deficit spending equals more borrowing and more demand for loan able funds
Dlf --> :r%:increases
-Less investment demand equals less borrowing and less demand for loan-able funds.
 Dlf <--: r%: decreases.

Supply of loan-able funds equals saving (i.e. demand for bonds)
-More saving equals more supply of loan-able funds (-->)
- Less saving equals less supply of loan-able funds (<--) 

Example: Government budget surpluses equals more saving and more supply of loan-able funds.

 Slf -->:r%: decreases
Decrease in consumers MPS equals less supply of loan-able funds and less savings
 Slf <---: r%: increases 

When the government does fiscal policy it will affect the loan-able funds market.

-Changes in real interest rate (r%) will affect Gross Private Investment. 

Key Principles

-A single bank can create money, through loans, by the amount of ER.
-The banking system as a whole can create money by a multiple (deposition money multiplier) of the initial ER.

New/ Existing Money
Bank Reserves
Immediate change in Money Supply
Initial Deposit Cash
(Money created in the banking system only)
Existing Money
Increase
No, because only the composition of money changes (cash to currency)
FED purchase of a bond from the public
New Money
Increase
Yes, because money coming from the FED puts new money in the circulation
Bank Purchase of a bond from the public
New Money
Increase
Yes, because money coming from reserves puts new money in circulation.


Factors that weaken the effectiveness of the deposit multiplier can be:
 1) if the banks fail to loan out all of their excess reserves.

 2) if bank customers take their loans in cash rather than in a new checking account deposits it creates a cash or currency drain

The money market (Supply and Demand for money) 
-The Demand for money has an inverse relationship between nominal interest rates and the quantity of money demanded. 


Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy : Congress: the President, Tax on Spend.
Monetary Policy: The FED ( Federal Reserve Bank), OMO, Discount Rate, Federal Fund Rate, Reserve Requirement.

The Federal Fund Rate is the interest rate that commercial banks charge one another for an overnight loan.
-Has an indirect relationship of the Money supply.
Prime Rate is the interest rate that the banks charge their most credit worthy customers. 

Open Market Operations (OMO)
-Buy or sell securities/bonds
Expansionary: recession
-Easy money policy
-Buy bonds which increases money supply
Contractionary: inflation
-Tight money policy
-Sell bonds which decreases money supply
Discount rate: the interest rate that the FED charges commercial banks for borrowing money. 
-Decrease
-Increase
Reserve Requirement
-Decrease
-Increase


Creating a bank

Depositing reserves in the Federal Reserve Banks.
- required reserves
- reserve ratio

Formula:

Reserve Ratio =
          Commercial bank's required reserves                                  

 Commercial bank's checkable deposits liabilities

Excess Reserves= Actual Reserves - Required Reserves

Required Reserves= Check-able Deposits * Reserve Ratio


Assets are made up of:
- Reserves: RR %
- Required Reserves (rr) is the percentage required by the FED to keep on hand to meet the demand.
-Excess Reserves (er) is the percentage reserves over and above the amount needed to satisfy the minimum of the reserve ratio that is set by the FED.
- Loans that firm consumers and other banks earning interest.
- Loans that go to the government which are equal to treasury securities.
- Bank property- (if the banks fails, you can liquidate the building/ property.)  

Liabilities + Equities are made of :
-Demand Deposits (dd) is money that is put into the bank.
-Times deposits (Check-able Deposits)
-Loans from Federal Reserve and other banks.
-Shareholders Equity- (to set up a bank, you must invest your own money in it to have a stake in the banks successes or failures.)    


The 7 Functions of the FED

FED functions:
  1. issuing paper currency
  2. setting reserve requirement and holding reserves of banks
  3. lending money to banks and charges them interest
  4. check clearing services for banks
  5. acting as personal bank for the government
  6. supervises member banks
  7. controls money supply in the economy. 

Three types of multiple deposit expansion:
Type 1: calculate the initial change in excess reserves. (the amount a single bank can loan from the initial deposit)
Type 2: calculate the change in loans in the banking system.
Type 3: calculate the change in money supply

Type 4: calculate the change in demand deposit

Unit 4

Definition: Money is any assets that can be used to purchase any goods or services.

There are three uses of money:
  1. As a medium of exchange - determine value
  2. Unit of account - to compare prices
  3. Store of value - where you put your money
The three types of money are: 
  1. Commodity Money - is money that has value within itself.   ex: salt, olive oil, gold 
  2. Representative Money - is money that represents something of value   ex: an IOU
  3.  Fiat Money - it is money because the government says so and it consists of paper currency and coins.
Six characteristics of money:
  1. Durability - how long it lasts
  2. Portability - you can take it anywhere or put it anywhere
  3. Divisibility - can be broken down
  4. Uniformity - it is the same no matter where you go
  5. Limited supply
  6. Acceptability - people will take it
* Money supply is the total value of financial assets available in the U.S economy*
-M1 Money involves liquid assets (easy to to convert to cash), checkable or demand deposits, and travelers checks.
-M2 Money involves M1 Money + Savings Act + Money Market account. 

Three purposes of Financial Institutions:
  • Store Money 
  • Save Money 
  • Loan Money 
Two reasons they loan out money is for credit cards and for mortgages.

There are 4 ways to save money:
  1. Through a savings account with an interest of 0.5 - 2%
  2. Checking account with no interest
  3. Money market account
  4. Certificate of deposit which can't move money without being penalized. 
Loans - banks operate on a fractional reserve system which means they keep a fraction in the bank and lend out the rest.  

*Interest rates*
Principle is the amount of money that has been borrowed

Actual interest is a price paid for use of borrowed money.
Simple interest that are paid on the principle
Compound interest which is money paid on the principle plus accumulated interest. 

Simple Interest: I= P*R*T              P= Principal   R= Interest Rate   T= Time
                                    100
 R= I * 100           P= I*100        T= I*100
         P*T                     R*T               P*R

There are 5 types of financial institutions:
  1. Commercial banks
  2. Savings and loan institutions
  3. Mutual savings bank
  4. Credit unions
  5. Finance companies. 


Investment is redirecting resources (consume now for the future).  

Financial Assets - claims on property and income of borrower 
Financial Intermediaries - institution that channels funds from savers to borrowers .

Three purposes if financial intermediaries are:
  1. That they share risks like in diversification which spreading investments to reduce risk.
  2. Intermediaries also provide information
  3. Liquidity that returns money to an investor receives above and beyond the sum of money that initially was invested. 

Bonds you loan; Stocks you own
Bonds: are loans or IOU's that represent debt that the government or the corporation must repay to an investor. Low risk investment.


Three components:  Coupon Rate is an interest rate that an issuer will pay to bondholder. Maturity is time in which a payment bond holder is due. Par Value is the amount that an investor pays to purchase a bond
*Yield is the annual rate of return on a bond if the bond were held to maturity.*

Time value of Money:
Why is a dollar today worth more than tomorrow?
-opportunity cost and inflation
-this is the reason for charging and paying

Interests:
Let v= future value of money.
 P= present value of money.
R= real interest rate (nominal interest rate - inflation rate) expressed as a decimal
 N= years.
 K= number of times interest is credited per year. 

Formulas:
Simple interest formula: v=(1+r/k)^n *p

The compound formula: v=(1+r/k)^nk +p 
 1) Calculate interest rate: r% = 1% - pi% 
2) Simple interest formula: v= (1+r)^n *p 

Monetary equation of exchange:
MV = PQ
M=money supply   V=velocity of money   P=price level   Q=quantity

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Fiscal Policy

*Changes in the expenditures or tax revenues of the federal government.
-2 tools of fiscal policy: controlled by congress
  • Taxes – government can increase or decrease taxes
  • Spending – government can increase or decrease spending

Balanced budget
   -Revenues = Expenditures
  Budget deficit
   -Revenues < Expenditures
  Budget Surplus
   -Revenues >Expenditures

  Government Debt: Sum of all deficits – sum of all surpluses
  Government Borrows money when it runs a budget deficit from:
   -Individuals
    -Corporations
   -Financial Institutions
   -Foreign entities or foreign governments

        Discretionary Fiscal Policy (  action )
    Expansionary fiscal policy – think deficit
    Contractionary fiscal policy – think surplus
      
       Non –Discretionary Fiscal Policy ( no action )

Discretionary:
Automatic:
-Increasing or decreasing government spending and/or taxes in order to return economy to full employment.
-Involves policy makers doing fiscal policy in response to an economic problem.

-Unemployment compensation and marginal tax rates are examples of automatic policies that help mitigate effects of a recession and inflation.
-Automatic fiscal policy takes place without policy makers.



   Contractionary Fiscal Policy – policy designed to decrease aggregate demand
  • Strategy for controlling inflation

   Expansionary Fiscal policy – to increase aggregate demand

  • Strategy for GDP combating recession and reducing unemployment

 Expansionary - Increase government spending (G increases) and decrease Taxes ( T decreases )

 Contractionary - Decrease government spending  (G decreases) and increase taxes  ( T increases )

Automatic or Built in stabilizers occur without government intervention.
  1. Transfer Payments
      -Welfare Checks
      -Food Stamps
      -Unemployment Checks
      -Corporate Dividends
      -Social Security
      -Veteran’s benefits

    2. Progressive income taxes
-Automatic stabilizers take 33-50% out

   Progress Tax System
    -Average tax rate ( tax revenue/ GDP) rises with GDP
   Proportional Tax System
    -Average tax rate ( remains constant as GDP changes)
    Regressive tax System
    -Average tax rate fall with GDP